And the winners of the 2022 Oscars will be… Film critic Mike Scott predicts this year’s big winners in all 23 categories | Movies/TV
Of course, there is always a chance for surprises. There are always surprises. They’re part of what makes the Oscars so fun.
Remember when “Green Book” upset “Roma” for Best Picture? Or when “Parasite” pushed “The Irishman” to become the first Best Foreign Language Film winner?
Or that one-year doozy where “Moonlight” won, despite “La La Land” being heralded as the stage winner?
Good times, good times.
That being said, you might want to temper your expectations for a better surprise when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences hands out its 2022 awards on Sunday night (March 27).
Surely, last week’s win at the Producers Guild Awards — a major Oscar bellwether — landed the easy-to-enact “CODA” right in the middle of the discussion. Either way, 2022 will be the year of the ‘dog’ – as in ‘The Power of the Dog,’ director Jane Campion’s revisionist western that remains the overwhelming favorite to win Oscar’s biggest prize. (and an armful of other trophies too).
Campion’s film, in addition to being critically acclaimed, has built an impressive head of awards season steam, winning the corresponding award at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes, BAFTAs and Director’s Guild. .
He led the race at the start of awards season, and he didn’t give up that lead at any point along the way.
But what about the other 22 Oscar categories?
Glad you asked. For those who haven’t filled their office Oscar pool yet, or for those who are just reassured to know how things are supposed to go, below are my picks in this year’s 23 categories, formulated through a combination of countless hours of filmmaking, obsessive pre-Oscar awards-watching, and familiarity with the Academy’s sometimes mysterious ways.
And the winners will be…
The nominees: “Belfast”, “CODA”, “Don’t Look Up”, “Drive My Car”, “Dune”, “King Richard”, “Licorice Pizza”, “Nightmare Alley”, “The Power of the Dog”, ” West Side Story”
Who will win: “The power of the dog”, for all the reasons stated above.
But don’t forget: “CODA.” Besides being hard to resist, AppleTV+’s big hit won this year’s Producers Guild Award, a major Oscars indicator that boosts its chances of becoming the little movie that could.
The nominees: Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”; Ryusuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”; Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”; Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story”
Who will win: Jane Campion. The results of nearly every pre-Oscar award this year suggest a big night for Campion, but beyond that, his “Power of the Dog” has received a rare embrace from all corners of the film industry. Plus, everyone loves making history, and there might be Oscar voters out there who like the idea of removing a pane or two of Hollywood’s glass ceiling by making her the first woman to win the trophy for best achievement twice in his career.
But don’t forget: Steven Spielberg. Because it’s Steven Spielberg.
The nominees: Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”; Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”; Andrew Garfield (“Tick, tick…boom!”); Will Smith (“King Richard”); Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of MacBeth”)
Who will win: Will Smith. This category is another of the locks of the night. Will Smith will win his first Oscar, for his skillfully layered portrayal of Venus and Serena’s father, Richard Williams, in director Reinaldo Marcus Green’s “King Richard.” Plus, he deserves it, for putting on such finely tuned performances in what turned out to be one of the most entertaining and inspiring films of the year.
But don’t forget: Cumberbatch. “Power of the Dog” is going to take home plenty of other awards on Sunday, so if you’re determined to land a surprise in this category on your Oscar pool, you could do worse than go with Cumby.
The nominees: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”; Olivia Colman, “The Lost Girl”; Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers”; Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”; Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”
Who will win: Jessica Chestnut. Finally, we have a close race. Chastain’s stunning performance, which served as the go-to anchor for director Michael Schowalter’s biopic Tammy Faye Bakker, won her the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice Award, making her the favorite in that category – by a nose (and lots of eyeshadow). Former winner and critical darling Colman could give her a hard time in what is shaping up to be one of Sunday’s tightest races.
But don’t forget: Nicole Kidman. Remember, she won the Golden Globe this year for her eerily accurate portrayal of Lucille Ball in “Being the Ricardos.” If Chastain and Colman water down each other’s vote, Kidman could benefit.
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast”; Troy Kotsur, “CODA”; Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog”; JK Simmons, “Being the Ricardos”; Kodi Smith-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”
Who will win: Tony Kosur. The “CODA” actor has already made history as the first deaf man to be nominated for an Oscar for acting. After his near-sweep of the pre-Oscar awards, he is set to once again become the first deaf man to win an acting Oscar. Given his touching SAG Award acceptance speech, he’s also a definite favorite to generate one of the most memorable moments of the night.
But don’t forget: Kodi Smit-McPhee. It’s one of the few categories in which “Power of the Dog” isn’t a favorite, but Smit-McPhee’s performance was such a key to Campion’s film that there may be more than a few voters. at the Oscars who can’t help but recognize him.
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Girl”; Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”; Judi Dench, “Belfast”; Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”; Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”
Who will win: Ariana DeBose. Like so many of Steven Spielberg’s musical remakes, DeBose simply dazzles as Anita. (While filming “America,” it’s reported that her shoes actually melted.) Forty-five years ago, Rita Morena won the Oscar for her role as Anita in the 1961 adaptation. This year , we can count on Ariana Dubose to do it again.
Who should win: Ellis. As good as Will Smith was in “King Richard,” it’s worth remembering that he had a great partner to play with Ellis.
The rest of the categories
Animated feature: “Encanto”.
Adapted scenario: “CODA”, although “The Power of the Dog” and “The Lost Daughter” are both well placed to upset.
Original screenplay: “Licorice Pizza”, as the Academy seizes the opportunity to give Paul Thomas Anderson his first Oscar.
Costume design: “Cruel”.
Documentary report: “To run away.”
Editing : “The Power of the Dog”, but watch “Dune” and “Don’t Look Up” for potential spoilers.
International feature: “Drive My Car”, in one of the slam dunks of the night.
Make-up and hairstyle: “Cruella”, in what is a very open race.
Manufacturing design: “Dune”, but it might as well go to “Nightmare Alley”.
Goal: “Dune”, in another close race.
Song: No Time to Die by Billie Eilish.
Animated short film: “Robin, Robin.”
Live short film: “The long goodbye.”
Documentary short film: “The Queen of Basketball.”
Visual effects: “Dunes.”